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Inventory of Foresight exercises

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Duration
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Geographical Coverage
Drivers / Sectors
Scale

FORESIGHT STUDY FICHE

DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY

Title
EuroMed-2030 - Long term challenges for the Mediterranean area
Authors / coordinators
Directorate-General for Research and Innovation - Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities with a group of experts ‘EuroMed-2030’
Web Contact
http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/index.cfm?pg=home
Publication Date
2011
Geographical Coverage
Mediterranean countries
Time Horizon
2030
Drivers / Sectors
Demography, Water, Agriculture, Energy, Climate change, Education and Science, Religion and culture, Geopolitics and governance

METHODOLOGY

No of scenarios
4
Scenario list
1. Managing conflict2. Win-win projects3. Deeper economic integration4. Towards a Euro-Mediterranean Community
Methodology
Macro-economic projections (demographic, GDP growth, international trade) for the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries, focusing on connections between EU members and SEMCs in economic and social field, most of all in strategic issues as Euro-Mediterranean free trade area, migration, energy, transport, environment, water, agriculture, climate change, technology transfer, marine and maritime issues as well as cultural issues including conflicts, religions and gender.
Partners involved
The study was prepared by Directorate for Science, Economy and Society of the European Commission DG Research & Innovation with a group of twenty experts named ‘EuroMed- 2030’.
Scales
National

OUTCOMES

Objective
The study aims to improve knowledge of the challenges of the Mediterranean area and to develop a forward-looking analysis able to identify the main challenges that policy-makers are forecast to face in next years in this area. For this purpose the study provides an assessment of the trends, tensions and scenarios for the Mediterranean area by 2030.
Scenario 1
1. A
Scenario 2
2. Win Win Transition is a project-based approach to cooperation aiming to fight the slow process of convergence in liberalization of fluxes in goods, services and knowledge through improved procedures of the Barcelona Process managed by the European Commission and by the Co-Presidency and the UfM Secretariat. Thanks to a more pragmatic approach to the original Barcelona objectives, the UfM will support the process of signing of the Association Agreements and the Action Plans, generating stronger South-South integration and guaranteeing a fair regional EU-MPC dialogue on the issues of common interest. Besides knowledge and innovation are promoted in the SEMCs thanks to a common agenda of the EU and the MPC aiming to develop scientific and economic partnership useful to increase the innovative capacity of the SEMCs.
Scenario 3
In “Deeper economic integration” scenario Euro-Mediterranean trade relations need to address more deeply non-tariff barriers and ‘behind the border’ issues. For this reason, it continues the process of creation of the Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade area whose main purpose is just promoting the diversification of trade and investment relations between the EU and the Mediterranean regions, to contribute to more favorable investment climate and to attract both domestic and foreign investment, through increased transparency, predictability and sustained economic growth.
Scenario 4
. “Towards a Euro-Mediterranean Community” is an integrated scenario focusing on development in social and political convergence in Mediterranean area after solution of lack of a shared vision, lack of political will, lack of trust, lack of resources and lack of suitable institutions. Cooperation and a deeper integration will be achieved through improvement of European Neighborhood Policy as for example a stake in the internal market, implementation of four freedoms, extension of European financial instruments to the SEMCs. Besides multiple existing networks in the field of economic and social cooperation will be improved together with all those non-governmental types of cooperation in migration, education, culture which rank below highly institutionalized activities and still constitute the bulk of sustainable measures in building trust in Euro-Mediterranean integration.

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References
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