| No of scenarios |
| 3 |
| Scenario list |
| 1. Trends2. Disruptions and crises, controversies and uncertainties3. Signals, seeds of change and actual transitions |
| Methodology |
| The study was conducted in four phases: (i) a summary of 80 prospective studies involving the Mediterranean, conducted over the past decade, (ii) the development of a common framework of forward thinking on the major issues identified in the previous phase and the establishment of thematic working groups on these key issues, (iii) the identification of research priorities to address the major issues of each topic, (iv) a cross-sectional analysis of proposals in to put forward a formulation facilitating their integration of a systemic point of view, leading to the final report. The study is based on a cross-sectoral and transdisciplinary approach. |
| Partners involved |
| 130 experts belonging to sixty organizations in ten countries and from various disciplines: agronomy, energy, environmental science, geography, economics, political science, human and society |
| Scales |
| Regional; National |
| Objective |
| The general objectives of ARP/PARME study are: stimulating forward thinking around new scientific issues and achieving syntheses of prospective studies. |
| Scenario 1 |
| 1. Trends : The current scenario confirms an increase in both the world's population (8 billion people in 2030) and the Mediterranean (due to the demographic transition and then lowering the birth rate in SEMCs). Because of population growth there will be an increase in the rate of coastal urbanization and increased migration to the countries of Northern Mediterranean. Agricultural issues and food security will be increasingly important in this period. Agriculture will keep being economically important in the area, but the globalization of trade, particularly agricultural products (meat, cereals,) with Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay)will increase food dependence of SEMC. Agriculture in the MENA will be strongly influenced by the weakening of family farming and the digging of a dual society in agriculture partly due to the spatial reconstruction of the territories (land distribution, concentration of large farms, loss of arable land peri-urban) and degradation of agro-ecosystems. The increase in population and changes in lifestyles will increase the dependence of the Mediterranean energy and food resources. Despite the rise slow but overall renewable energy (solar, micro-hydro, geothermal, marine energy such as biomass) and the development of new technologies for transport and storage, the transition energy is always characterized by the dominant use of fossil fuels in the energy mix (oil, gas and coal). Water resources are also subjected to high pressures whether or anthropogenic climate change. Demand for drinking water, industrial or agricultural, should greatly increase as the availability of water, including coastal areas will be in sharp decline. Tourism development and heliotropism (including seasonal retirees) will add to this demand and exacerbate competition with other uses of water. Aquatic ecosystems, providing procurement services and regulation as wetlands (natural purification and filtration of water) will be increasingly at risk because of growing urbanization particularly on the coast. Management policy for the water supply has already reached its limits, we are moving towards a policy of demand management including implementation of new resources: desalination, wastewater reuse, sharpening operation reserves of non-renewable . |
| Scenario 2 |
| 2. Disruptions and crises, controversies and uncertainties: There are many crises elements that may further complicate the situation in the Mediterranean. The current problems affecting the agricultural world could cause actual food crises: for example the volatility of agricultural prices linked to international trade and speculation on global natural resources, the climatic disturbances, the widespread overexploitation of living marine resources causing regression of important fisheries such as tuna, difficult access to water and sharing use may cause conflicts both in a national context (agriculture, tourism) or across borders (water supply, agriculture, aquifers) if appropriate policies to water management were not established. These elements are linked to other factors of potential crisis: an even more degraded biodiversity which reduces ecosystem resilience to external aggressions such as an epidemic, and besides, risks connected to water management. |
| Scenario 3 |
| 3. Signals, seeds of change and actual transitions: Some signs of change are already present in the current economic, social and environmental Mediterranean dynamics. Starting from this, ARP / PARME studies suggests some important transitions. It could be observed increasingly implementing awareness programs and training policies and citizens / users on health issues and management of water resources (development of participatory management in the local governance systems). It will also be achieved a strengthening regional cooperation on water resources in particular, a decentralized energy systems and water supply, mobilization and recognition of local knowledge, particularly with regard to water management and crop with hybridization with technical advances, product specifications with the development of protected geographical indication, policies of agricultural biodiversity conservation (in situ and ex situ). |
