| No of scenarios |
| 5 |
| Scenario list |
| 1. Doomsday (negative impact of EU fisheries and aquaculture on world ecosystems)2. Delicatessen (fish as a healthy food): new opportunities for European fisheries and aquaculture3. Regionalism (local solutions for marine resources)4. Responsibility (a cooperative world with stakeholder involvement)5. 1984 (total European regulation and control to maintain seafood production) |
| Methodology |
| Basically, the methodology consists of three steps: (i) describe the system, (ii) detect the driving forces in the system and, (iii) by constructing hypotheses about the driving forces, sketch potential scenarios for the future. These different scenarios will provide the basis for the identification of issues, from an economical, ecological, societal and managerial (governance) perspective, which may need attention or be the key challenges in future. Based on the analysis, some of the key future needs for research in capture fisheries and aquaculture will be identified. |
| Partners involved |
| IMARES, CEFAS, Fiskeriforskning, Ifremer, HCMR, Marine Board, Futuribles |
| Scales |
| Regional |
| Objective |
| The goal of the project is to define the research required in the medium term (here taken as 10 years), to permit exploitation and farming of aquatic resources set against the context of key challenges and risks for meeting sustainability requirements. The main output of the exercise will be a publication outlining key challenges, strategic options and the research needs of capture fisheries and aquaculture in European waters and in waters in which European fleets operate under bilateral or multilateral agreements. The project is expected to contribute to the development and subsequent implementation of a European Maritime Policyand to further strengthen the European marine research area through anticipation of research needs in the field of fisheries and aquaculture. |
| Scenario 1 |
| 1. Doomsday (negative impact of EU fisheries and aquaculture on world ecosystems): under this scenario ecosystems and the environment become heavily degraded. Climate change is faster than expected, and recurrent extreme weather events drive the price of grain up. Marine Protected Areas are established, but mainly to protect national fishing interests (and exclude foreigners), rather than biodiversity and natural resources. Existing protection measures are foregone in favour of food security concerns. profitability is regarded more important than environmental sustainability, population pressure increases and/or activities release more contaminants and pollution. Fishing then turns to lower trophic levels. Catches are sold as ingredients for engineered fish products. Fishing also targets krill and mesopelagic fish, to increase the production of fish feed for aquaculture. This leads, by 2020, to an impossible recovery of lower trophic level stocks and to the collapse of most other stocks. In other words: large predators collaps first, and then fishing down the foodweb leads to total collapse of other stocks. A new kind of resource for fisheries is the northbound migration of southern species, effectively becoming new invasive species (e.g. lessepsian species and comb jellies). Ultimately, fishing fleet profitability decreases as a consequence of lower value production shared among a large fishing fleet. Aquaculture focuses on intensive farming of large species (mainly in cages). The concentration of the same species in a single area leads to an increased need for medication (antibiotics). The mass culture production of a few species is initially highly profitable, but it ultimately becomes less profitable because of the poor perception about farmed production, but also because of the lack of fish feed. |
| Scenario 2 |
| 2. Delicatessen (fish as a healthy food): new opportunities for European fisheries and aquaculture. With the increasing demand for safe and healthy seafood products both fishing industry and Community legal system in the field of fisheries aquaculture are developed. Beside a demand for more fish products because of their health-giving properties the industry promotes seafood products developed from marine species. However, the aquaculture production is developing and production increases since the fishing industry cannot provide the fish quantities demanded. European fish production is protected from lower cost imports through a series of new high standards of traceability. Fish quality, fish health and pollution risks are controlled by means of policies on the marine environment and the exploitation of marine resources have to be centralized at an EU level so that decisions and management tools are globally harmonized and controlled. Further, EU policy takes some strong initiatives, such as using transferable quotas to reduce the fishing fleet between 2010 and 2015. The decrease in fishing effort is necessary because the fishing grounds are exhausted and spawning adults to help recover. The ‘burden of proof’ is introduced for fishing vessels, whereby the operator has to demonstrate that they are not damaging the resource or habitat, leading to recovery of recruitment and ecosystems by 2020. There is a general trend in the adoption of clean technologies by stakeholders (onshore industries, shipping), even if not in a uniform way throughout the European territory. Under this scenario technology solves or helps to alleviate many of the main environmental concerns. Fishing pressure is tightly controlled but there is also some development of less environmentally damaging fishing gears. Local solutions are sought to local problems and in some areas environmental benefits are clear, but not in other areas. |
| Scenario 3 |
| 3. Regionalism (local solutions for marine resources): This scenario assumes the overcoming of past lack of regional enforcement of the Common Fishery Policy in favour of a new EU regulation on ecosystem management. A system of legal instruments, which varies depending on the region will be developed in order to allow for stock recovery within European regions along with effort and ITQ management system. Among these tools, Marine Protected Areas continue to be the preferred way. A growing trend towards protectionism affects fish sector and non-tariff barriers of “quality” are used, mainly by northern countries as a protection for imports. In return, southern countries with fishing industries stop giving access to their fishing grounds. There is a reduction in the number of bilateral agreements for fishing, and trade in fish products decrease. In coastal southern countries, fish is more available for local consumption, and yields a larger share of animal protein intake. In this scenario it is in the best interest of local communities to act in a sustainable manner, and to protect their indigenous natural resources. Aquaculture fills the gap left by increased seafood demand and diminishing wild fish supply. A great diversity of species is produced, with locally produced species as premium products. The success of small teams in biological research and development for aquaculture has led to farming of many (around 40) new species in Europe, and to diversification of seed ranching for new species. Also, native species are fostered, along with introduced fast-growing species. |
| Scenario 4 |
| 4. Responsibility (a cooperative world with stakeholder involvement) : this scenario assumes a cooperative world with local stakeholders' involvement sea about management and access to marine resources. The fishing industry specializes mainly in the production of non-food use. Aquaculture diversifies into Mainly herbivorous species. By 2020, wild stocks recover to the level of the 1970s. A greater sensitivity to what is concerned with environmental issues leads to the development of more sustainable technologies and the protection of most vulnerable species (sharks and skates deep-sea or fish). For this reason Marine Protected Areas are established wherever there are clear biodiversity benefits or a need to protect vulnerable habitats. In addition ‘essential fish habitats’ are protected (e.g. herring nursery areas), for the ‘greater good’ of the fish population and local fisheries. In some cases, voluntary ‘codes of conduct’ result in improved environmental conditions, but mandatory controls remain weak and there remain problems associated with introduced/non-native species and environmental controls over non-European operators (which do not abide by ‘voluntary’ agreements). |
| Scenario 5 |
| 5. 1984 (total European regulation and control to maintain seafood production): At European level it is adopted a new system of regulation and control to maintain seafood production. Fish waste has to be recycled and used, locally caught fish benefits from ‘food mile’ subsidies (less greenhouse gas emissions through transportation). Aquaculture is promoted and enhanced in many directions, including fish nutrition, health and welfare requiring huge investments. Harmful Algal Blooms have been reduced and now can be predicted allowing safe production of molluscs. The EU policy includes strong initiatives to reduce the fishing fleet between 2010 and 2015, because the fishing grounds are becoming exhausted and it is necessary to generate a recovery. Tightly regulated aquaculture is promoted, because fisheries cannot deliver sufficient volume of seafood. European regulations on water quality result in decreased input and runoff of undesirable organic material and metals, as well as tight control and infraction proceedings resulting in reduced eutrophication of rivers and coastal waters. |
