AMP Toolbox

In general, three types of uncertainties in future developments can be distinguished: natural, social and technological (Haasnoot et al., 2013). In the field of sustainable marine development, these include the following factors:

• Lack of long- term(50 years) data series on marine ecosystems
• Knowledge gaps in complex ecological interactions between species and between species and their marine environment
• Spatial and temporal variability
• Lack of knowledge on the interaction between terrestrial and marine ecosystems
• Possible incremental and changing expansion patterns of invasive species

• Lack of knowledge on future evolution of socio-economic drivers and pressures, and their interaction with the marine environment (e.g. growth of fishing sector, effects of marine protected areas, etc.)
• Change of social values (value attributed to ecosystem services)
• Future policy responses
• Societal/stakeholder support in the near and distant future
• Specifically in the Mediterranean and Black Sea: political instability and uncertainty about development of non-EU countries bordering the respective seas 

• Uncertainties in models
• Faulty documentation/measurement of indicators on ecological status
 
• Oversimplification, model incompleteness or lack of understanding of interaction to be modeled