AMP Toolbox
Develop Scenarios and perform Risk analysis
Introduction
An adaptive policy should have the capacity to adapt to anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Accordingly, this activity comprises the identification of the main environmental risks of not accomplishing the policy goal (e.g. achieving and/or maintaining Good Environmental Status) and the exploration of different potential drivers of change in the future which can affect policy performance. Additionally, scenarios allow anticipating the performance of different policy options, which can be compared to a “no intervention” scenario or a “business as usual” scenario.
Key questions
An adaptive policy should have the capacity to adapt to anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Accordingly, this activity comprises the identification of the main environmental risks of not accomplishing the policy goal (e.g. achieving and/or maintaining Good Environmental Status) and the exploration of different potential drivers of change in the future which can affect policy performance. Additionally, scenarios allow anticipating the performance of different policy options, which can be compared to a “no intervention” scenario or a “business as usual” scenario.
Key questions
- What are the risks of not achieving the goal?
- Which drivers of change can affect the policy performance?
Key actions
- Identification of the key factors and risks which will affect the policy performance or to achieve the defined goal.
- Explore the different potential drivers of change in the future that can affect the policy performance.
- Formalise different scenarios to anticipate the performance of different policy options or strategies. In scenario development, potential future scenarios are compared against an identified reference point (baseline) to assess the evolution of key factors and how these will affect the achievement of policy goals. For example, predict the effect of different policies or measures in terms of reduction of relevant pressures in comparison to the baseline.
See: PERSEUS Fact Sheet Series: “Main environmental risks of not achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) in the Southern European Seas”
Tools (highlighted tools are linked with more detailed tool descriptions ).
Tools (highlighted tools are linked with more detailed tool descriptions ).
- DPSWR framework
- Fisheries Library in R
- Habitat Priority Planner
- InVEST Toolbox
- MarineMap
- MARXAN
- PANDA
- SimLab
- Quantitative stock assessment methods
- Asset /Objective – Impact /Threat Matrix
- Conceptual and Qualitative Modelling
- Non Formal Risk Categories (Preliminary Hazard Analysis)
- Qualitative Risk Analysis (consequence X likelihood)
- AQUATOX
Resources dedicated to the Mediterranean and Black Sea marine environment
- Integrated Models: the IMAGE Model
- “End to End” Models
- List of issues at risk of non-achievement of Good Environmental Status (GES) and scenarios to be modelled
Knowledge base