| The trend scenario is founded on assumptions related to climate, cooperation and regional integration, population, economy and environmental and development policies. Plan Bleu starts from the hypothesis of a growing vulnerability to natural hazards because of an intensification of global warming (less than 1° C by 2025) and an increase of extreme climatic events in Mediterranean area. The EU will strengthen its presence in the Mediterranean by the accession of five coastal states (Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Turkey) and by the improvement of some legal instruments aimed at achieving the maintenance of peace, adherence to principles of social market economy, economic convergence and action to protect the Common environment. However Euro-Mediterranean integration is proceeding slowly in part because of limited resources aiming at building a structured cooperation and in part because of the persistence of several conflicts in the Southern and Eastern countries of Mediterranean. Up to 2025, the baseline scenario assumes continued globalization, liberalized North-South trade (progressive in agriculture) and restrictive migratory policies.In SEMCs the demographic transition and the convergence of fertility rates with those in northern Europe will generate an increase in population of 137 million people by 2050 . The population is concentrated mainly along the coasts and in the more urbanized areas. In contrast, the countries of the northern Mediterranean will have to face the problems raised by an aging population and by a larger demand for employment coming from SMECs.Economic growth remains uncertain for 2025, particularly in the South and East: the baseline scenario assumes for the entire Mediterranean Basin, an average GDP growth rate of 2.7% per year over the period 200-2025 versus 2.5% in 1985-2000. Concerning environmental policies they will keep remaining basically top-down, corrective and regulatory instead of participatory. Economic cooperation and sectorial policies (agriculture, energy, water, transport, and tourism) will poorly integrate the environmental component or the sustainability concerns. |
