| Objective |
| The general objective of the IPEMED study is promoting foresight methodology throughout the Mediterranean area as a new decision-making tool. For this purpose the study proposes a serious foresight analysis concerning the next developments in the field energy, agriculture, water and the environment, population and migration and foreign direct investment. |
| Scenario 1 |
| 1. BAU scenario: The current scenario proposed by IPEMED assumes an increase on one side of the intra-Mediterranean divergence and on the other hand, of intra-European gaps. At Euro-Mediterranean level, in accordance with past trends, the European growth rates will be under 2% per year, while South and East of the Mediterranean and the Balkans will improve their GDP performance until to get a growth of 3.4% per year. If at the institutional level some results in terms of agricultural and commercial liberalization in the Euro-Med will be achieved, at real competition from Asian markets requires countries to some economic policy choices by the heavy consequences for society. Countries are obliged to adopt tight monetary policy and wage restraint together with industrial specialization in low-cost products, resulting in a detriment of purchasing power and domestic demand. Not only Mediterranean agricultural production declines under stiff competition from products from afar (especially from Chile, Australia, Brazil and China) but in the South of the Mediterranean there is a marginalization of inland rural areas. Beside, this phenomenon the massive migration, the urbanization especially along the coasts, the increase of the energy and food demand will determine deeper impacts in terms of pollution, loss of biodiversity and paving the coastline in the South and East of the Mediterranean. The environmental pressures are forecast to raise seriously: in SEMCs not only the pressure on water resources becomes unbearable and the contribution to the climate change worrisome but the increase in the dependence on fossil fuels, led by the augmentation of the population, will bring to a very strong growth of their co2 emissions (of about 100%). |
| Scenario 2 |
| 2. “Crisis in the Mediterranean region”: in Euro-Mediterranean area debt crisis and a not favourable situation of public finances severely limit the potential growth of the Euro-Mediterranean nations. The critical financial situation, inevitably linked to trade flows, generates a reduction of trade and investment by the Euro-Mediterranean countries mainly in North Africa. Here the economic instability will increase the discontent given by the non-completion of the political transition. In contrast, in Turkey, in the Mashreq and the Balkans the transfers of capital coming from Northern Europe and the emerging countries, attracted by an economic climate conducive to high-yield investments, are stable. From an environmental point of view low progress in energy efficiency (in the Arabic Mediterranean and the Balkans), the lack of renewable energy development and the continued use of fossil energy prevent a reduction of environmental impacts coming from energy demand. Regarding agriculture, the dichotomy of intensive farming for export under-equipped alongside subsistence crop farming continues in the absence of productivity gains. Water conflict intensifies. Food dependency and rural poverty go hand in hand and accentuated social imbalances, fueling a vicious circle of instability. |
| Scenario 3 |
| 3. “Mediterranean convergence scenario”: This is a scenario of cooperative type, it assumes the creation of an integrated regional system that is based on establishment of the four EU freedoms, access to the European domestic market and standardized norms allowing the emergence of a regional preference system. Against the background of this institutional framework not only productivity and the employment rate of the entire Mediterranean basin increase, but also improve the social conditions and processes of redistribution. |
